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An Artificial Intelligence-Based Framework for Predicting Emergency Department Overcrowding: Development and Evaluation Study

Vural, Orhun, Ozaydin, Bunyamin, Aram, Khalid Y., Booth, James, Lindsey, Brittany F., Ahmed, Abdulaziz

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding remains a major challenge, causing delays in care and increased operational strain. Hospital management often reacts to congestion after it occurs. Machine learning predictive modeling offers a proactive approach by forecasting patient flow metrics, such as waiting count, to improve resource planning and hospital efficiency. Objective: This study develops machine learning models to predict ED waiting room occupancy at two time scales. The hourly model forecasts the waiting count six hours ahead (e.g., a 1 PM prediction for 7 PM), while the daily model estimates the average waiting count for the next 24 hours (e.g., a 5 PM prediction for the following day's average). These tools support staffing decisions and enable earlier interventions to reduce overcrowding. Methods: Data from a partner hospital's ED in the southeastern United States were used, integrating internal metrics and external features. Eleven machine learning algorithms, including traditional and deep learning models, were trained and evaluated. Feature combinations were optimized, and performance was assessed across varying patient volumes and hours. Results: TSiTPlus achieved the best hourly prediction (MAE: 4.19, MSE: 29.32). The mean hourly waiting count was 18.11, with a standard deviation of 9.77. Accuracy varied by hour, with MAEs ranging from 2.45 (11 PM) to 5.45 (8 PM). Extreme case analysis at one, two, and three standard deviations above the mean showed MAEs of 6.16, 10.16, and 15.59, respectively. For daily predictions, XCMPlus performed best (MAE: 2.00, MSE: 6.64), with a daily mean of 18.11 and standard deviation of 4.51. Conclusions: These models accurately forecast ED waiting room occupancy and support proactive resource allocation. Their implementation has the potential to improve patient flow and reduce overcrowding in emergency care settings.


Deep Learning Applications in Medical Image Analysis: Advancements, Challenges, and Future Directions

Eli, Aimina Ali, Ali, Abida

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Medical image analysis has emerged as an essential element of contemporary healthcare, facilitating physicians in achieving expedited and precise diagnosis. Recent breakthroughs in deep learning, a subset of artificial intelligence, have markedly revolutionized the analysis of medical pictures, improving the accuracy and efficiency of clinical procedures. Deep learning algorithms, especially convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in autonomously learning features from multidimensional medical pictures, including MRI, CT, and X-ray scans, without the necessity for manual feature extraction. These models have been utilized across multiple medical disciplines, including pathology, radiology, ophthalmology, and cardiology, where they aid in illness detection, classification, and segmentation tasks......


ChatGPT and a New Academic Reality: Artificial Intelligence-Written Research Papers and the Ethics of the Large Language Models in Scholarly Publishing

Lund, Brady, Wang, Ting, Mannuru, Nishith Reddy, Nie, Bing, Shimray, Somipam, Wang, Ziang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper discusses OpenAIs ChatGPT, a generative pre-trained transformer, which uses natural language processing to fulfill text-based user requests (i.e., a chatbot). The history and principles behind ChatGPT and similar models are discussed. This technology is then discussed in relation to its potential impact on academia and scholarly research and publishing. ChatGPT is seen as a potential model for the automated preparation of essays and other types of scholarly manuscripts. Potential ethical issues that could arise with the emergence of large language models like GPT-3, the underlying technology behind ChatGPT, and its usage by academics and researchers, are discussed and situated within the context of broader advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing for research and scholarly publishing.


A Study of Left Before Treatment Complete Emergency Department Patients: An Optimized Explanatory Machine Learning Framework

Ahmed, Abdulaziz, Aram, Khalid Y., Tutun, Salih

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The issue of left before treatment complete (LBTC) patients is common in emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may cause a revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to leave before treatment is complete is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse effects. This paper proposes a framework for studying the factors that affect LBTC outcomes in EDs. The framework integrates machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and model interpretation techniques. Metaheuristic optimization is used for hyperparameter optimization--one of the main challenges of machine learning model development. Three metaheuristic optimization algorithms are employed for optimizing the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), which are simulated annealing (SA), adaptive simulated annealing (ASA), and adaptive tabu simulated annealing (ATSA). The optimized XGB models are used to predict the LBTC outcomes for the patients under treatment in ED. The designed algorithms are trained and tested using four data groups resulting from the feature selection phase. The model with the best predictive performance is interpreted using SHaply Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The findings show that ATSA-XGB outperformed other mode configurations with an accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score of 86.61%, 87.50%, 85.71%, 87.51%, and 86.60%, respectively. The degree and the direction of effects of each feature were determined and explained using the SHAP method.